Worldwide impact of lifestyle predictors of dementia prevalence: an eXplainable Artificial Intelligence analysis

Loredana Bellantuono^{1, 2}, Alfonso Monaco^{2, 3*}, Nicola Amoroso^{2, 4}, Antonio Lacalamita³, Ester Pantaleo^{2, 3}, Sabina Tangaro^{2, 5} and Roberto Bellotti^{2, 3}

• ¹Dipartimento di Scienze Mediche di Base, Neuroscienze e Organi di Senso, Università Aldo Moro di Bari, Italy
• ²Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Bari, Bari, Italy, Italy
• ³Dipartimento Interateneo di Fisica, Università degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy, Italy
• ⁴Dipartimento di Farmacia-Scienze del Farmaco, Università degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy, Italy
• ⁵Dipartimento di Scienze del Suolo, della Pianta e degli Alimenti, Universita` degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy, Italy

Dementia is an umbrella term indicating a group of diseases that affect the cognitive sphere. Dementia is not a mere individual health issue, since its interference with the ability to carry out daily activities entails a series of collateral problems, comprising exclusion of patients from civil rights and welfare, unpaid caregiving work, mostly performed by women, and an additional burden on the public healthcare systems. Thus, gender and wealth inequalities (both among individuals and among countries) tend to amplify the social impact of such a disease. Since at present there is no cure for dementia but only drug treatments to slow down its progress and mitigate the symptoms, it is essential to work on prevention and early diagnosis, identifying the risk factors that increase the probability of its onset. The complex and multifactorial etiology of dementia, resulting from an interplay between genetics and environmental factors, can benefit from a multidisciplinary approach that follows the ``One Health'' guidelines of the World Health Organization. In this work, we apply methods of Artificial Intelligence and complex systems physics to investigate the possibility to predict dementia prevalence throughout world countries from a set of variables concerning individual health, food consumption, substance use and abuse, healthcare system efficiency. The analysis uses publicly available indicator values at a country level, referred to a time window of 26 years. Employing methods based on eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) and complex networks, we identify a group of lifestyle factors, mostly concerning nutrition, that contribute the most to dementia incidence prediction. The proposed approach provides a methodological basis to develop quantitative tools for action patterns against such a disease, which involves issues deeply related with sustainable, such as good health and resposible food consumption.